Is A 20% Home Price Decline Coming To The National Real Estate Market?

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MINT HILL, NC – Plenty of predictions are out there about the real estate market for 2023. This time of year, every expert and every self-proclaimed expert, along with some of their brothers, sisters, cousins, and distance uncles toss out their predictions for the next year’s real estate market. Most will be wrong, at least in one way or another.

Currently, there are 20 real estate models making predictions about the 2023 housing market. Depending on which one you look at, you might be super worried or not worried at all. Let’s look at what these models say and what you should expect in 2023.

How Often are the Real Estate Models Correct?

It’s hard to answer this question without doing a very deep dive into every prediction from all the real estate models. However, it’s important to remember the 2008 real estate crisis. Only a few people were correct about their predictions (at least mostly correct) and they were looked at as crazy people before things started to happen. Michael Burry is the most famous name that came out of that time with his predictions, which led to the movie Big Short. He has been right about many different financial predictions over the years.

Currently, Michael Burry is predicting another big stock market crash, which will likely lead to changes in the real estate market. He also predicted the fall in the cryptocurrency space that recently happened. He has also said he is very short on subprime mortgages, which are tied directly to the real estate market.

The real estate models didn’t really predict what happened in 2008, but many things have changed since then, too. Often, the models are a bit more conservative on their predictions, but not always. Remember, they are making predictions and they cannot see into the future.

What do the U.S. Real Estate Models Say About 2023?

Many real estate models are not predicting home prices will fall in 2023 instead of just slowdown in growth. These predictions are coming from many firms including John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Goldman Sachs, Moody’s Analytics, Morgan Stanley, Zonda, KPMG, and others.

The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index has already shown U.S. home prices are down 2.2% from June to September of 2022. Some of the predictions for 2023 include:

  • – 5.4% rise in the median price of existing homes.
  • Homes LLC – 4% U.S. home price rise
  • Mortgage Bankers Association – 0.7% U.S. home price rise in 2023
  • Freddie Mac – 0.2% U.S. home price fall
  • Fannie Mae – 1.5% U.S. home price fall
  • Wells Fargo 5.5% U.S. home price fall
  • Capital Economics – 8% U.S. home price fall
  • Goldman Sachs – 5% to 10% U.S. home price fall
  • Zonda Home – 15% U.S. home price fall
  • Pantheon Macroencomincs – 20% U.S. home price fall
  • John Burns Real Estate Consulting – 20% to 22% U.S. home price fall

Which real estate model will be correct, nobody really knows yet, but 2023 is likely going to be a bit of a roller coaster in the real estate industry. If some of the more doom and gloom predictions are right, we could be in for a repeat of 2008 or worse.

I would love to be part of your journey when the time is right for you. If you ever have a real estate question or need, or know someone who does, trust that you can turn to me.  I will help you make the right move! Anna Granger (704) 650-5707 | |

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